VentureBlog: Thinking About Success Factors

Posted in June 29th, 2004

The above is a must read for the inventor with an idea!!!

Its not so much about funding, as it is success. I have seen so many hockey stick marketing plans. Admittedly, I’ve even created some in my younger days. I had to learn the hard way, that trying to create a market for the technology is fraught with headache upon headache…. Even with the coolest, latest and greatest gizmo, software, or concept, the small guy is at a huge disadvantage to create the market.

When Earl Bakken started Medtronic, he had a market. When he codeveloped the pacemaker, it was based upon need. A few years back when I was able to visit with Earl, I asked him his opinion as to what the next need would be…. I’ve been working on it ever since. The technology is close, but the market is still years away… sort of a problem with visionary ideas. And thats why, the development effort remains two guys in a rural garage and a consulting MD.

I knew in the back of my head, we are way too early, and seeing what Mr Tobias wrote, it just confirms it. VC’s want returns, they want you to succeed and become an exceedingly great company. His words of wisdom on the market, and the early adoption eg 12-18months, really put things in perspective.

Yet another point he makes are tirekickers not making a market. In years of development, I’ve heard over and over.. wow thats really amazing, I must have one…. And then 6 months later when it emerges from the garage, and we say here it is, they don’t want to buy.

The heightened sense of awareness Mr Tobias talks about is yet another issue. Often times in my development side of my business, clients have me make the presentations… As my crew is the biggest bunch of pessimists you will ever see. We shoot holes. we drill holes, we blow ideas to shreds… and then we create solutions.

In financial presentations, I’ve never been asked a question I had not thought of before…. Maybe we should change our tagline (pessimist central, we will kill your idea…. before the market will) Joking aside, positive thinking and drive are critical to success (yes our group has a lot of it, or we would drown in despair with our pessimism), but it must be balanced against real problems in all areas.

And bowing out is yet another issue… sometimes no matter how hard the work and drive, the market will evaporate. And one has to know when to cry uncle. Its hard, I’ve worked for years on multimillion dollar programs, only to have them evaporate in a few weeks with a market shift. Its very very hard to cry uncle…. but your success depends upon it.